Where is the spring in the consumer sector?

2022-06-05 0 By

“Xing” file name: Jiang Li wire position: fixed number of year of the rights and interests of investment fund manager in the securities industry: 10 years experience in the securities industry education: master’s degree in management science and engineering of Shanghai jiaotong university management products: industrial consumption of selected hybrid # 01 since last year, weak consumer sector overall performance, combined with the macro fundamentals, what do you think the layout when opportunity?Jiang Lisi: Since last year, the performance of the consumer sector has been weak. On the one hand, due to the poor fundamentals, low terminal demand, high inventory and rising raw material costs, on the other hand, due to the high valuation of the consumer sector in the past few years, enterprises with reasonable fundamentals are also in the process of digging the valuation.Recently, there has been a large adjustment in the market due to internal and external difficulties. The yield difference between Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 shares and bonds has nearly reached minus 2 standard deviation, which means that compared with bonds, the current potential yield of stocks is more attractive, and the overall downward adjustment of the stock market is nearing the end.The return difference between stocks and bonds of the consumer sector is around negative one standard deviation, indicating that the overall valuation of the consumer sector is low and relatively reasonable.Considering the high performance base of the consumer sector in the first quarter of last year, it is expected that the fundamentals of this round will bottom out in the first quarter of 2022, and the allocation of the consumer sector can be appropriately increased in the middle of the year. By the end of the year, the consumer boom will bottom out and rise with the valuation switch, so we judge that there will be a golden window for the distribution of the consumer sector.#02 How do you interpret and analyze the recent resurgence of domestic epidemic, which has put pressure on consumer industries?Jiang Lisi: The epidemic is indeed the most important factor affecting consumer sentiment in the short term.From the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021, when the epidemic was relatively under control, consumption was on a healthy recovery path. However, in the third quarter of 2021, end-consumption was significantly affected by the epidemic control upgrade caused by the novel coronavirus variant Delta. It is expected that consumption will also be depressed in March 2022 due to the outbreak of Omicro.China has recently released the revised COVID-19 Diagnosis and Treatment Protocol, making dynamic adjustments to the normalized situation of the epidemic, aiming to reduce the impact on the production and life of residents without affecting the overall epidemic prevention situation in China. It is expected that the epidemic prevention and control will enter a new stage in the future, and consumption is expected to gradually recover.#03 Based on the overall judgment of the market, how will you select the segments of the consumer industry?What to look forward to?What to be careful about?Jiang Lisi: The current prospects are as follows: first, the mass consumer goods segment with a good competitive pattern and cost transmission capability;Second, the fundamentals at the bottom, with reverse expected aquaculture plate;Third, the investment opportunities of automobile industry chain under the background of intelligence;Fourth, the epidemic to repair the chain, and real estate policy relaxation expected opportunities for the real estate industry chain.We need to be wary of growth stocks whose logic has changed, and we need to re-evaluate their growth and sustainability.Risk tip: investment risk, fund investment needs to be cautious.Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, the Prospectus, the Summary of product information and other legal documents when purchasing the fund to understand the specific situation of the fund.The development time of China’s securities market is short, so it cannot reflect all the stages of stock market development.The fund’s past performance is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the Fund Manager does not constitute a guarantee of the Fund’s performance.The Fund Manager undertakes to manage and use the Fund assets in good faith, diligence and due diligence, but does not guarantee a certain profit of the Fund or the minimum profit.The business isolation system is implemented between the fund manager and the shareholders, and the shareholders do not directly participate in the investment operation of the fund property.The above information is for reference only and is not used as any legal document.In no event shall the information or opinions expressed herein constitute the Actual investment results of the Fund Manager or any investment advice to investors.If you need to buy the relevant fund products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations of investor suitability management, do a risk assessment in advance, and buy the fund products with the corresponding risk level according to your risk tolerance.