To overcome “uncertainty” with certainty to improve power supply capacity

2022-06-11 0 By

— Interview with Wang Yixuan, Director of statistics and Data Center of China Electricity Council Fu Chaohuan, reporter of Our newspaper On January 27, the Report on the Analysis and forecast of the National Electricity Supply and demand Situation in 2021-2022 was released.The report predicts that electricity consumption will increase by 5%-6% in 2022.In each quarter, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society increased quarter by quarter.In the first half of the year, the total social electricity consumption increased by 3.5%~4.5% year-on-year, and in the second half of the year, it increased by 6.5%~7.5% year-on-year.What uncertainties remain in the power supply and demand situation in 2022?Wang Yixuan, director of the statistics and data Center of the China Electricity Council, said, “Macroeconomic factors such as the domestic economy and foreign trade and exports, as well as various factors such as temperature, fuel supply and precipitation, all bring great uncertainty to the power supply and demand situation in 2022.”Wang Yixuan said that from the perspective of electricity consumption demand, uncertainty is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is the uncertainty brought by temperature to the growth of electricity consumption.In recent years, the influence of temperature on electricity load and electricity consumption is more and more prominent.Air conditioning electricity load in some cities accounts for more than 40% of the total electricity load in the city during the high temperature period in summer. If there is a wide range of long-term extreme high temperature weather in summer, the influence degree of annual electricity consumption growth can reach about 1 percentage point.Winter temperatures also bring greater uncertainty to power demand.Second, there are uncertainties in economic development such as export growth.In 2021, the rapid growth of China’s export is one of the important factors driving the economy and the rapid growth of electricity consumption.In 2022, the external environment will become more complex and severe, and the readjustment of the global industrial and supply chains in the era of COVID-19 will bring uncertainties to China’s import and export activities.In 2022, with the normalization of global COVID-19 prevention and control, it is expected that the production process in other countries will gradually recover and the level of resumption of production will be better than that in 2021, bringing uncertainty to China’s export growth, and accordingly to China’s macroeconomic growth and power consumption growth.From the perspective of power supply, the uncertainty is mainly manifested in two aspects: on the one hand, the uncertainty of power fuel supply.At present, China’s coal power generation accounts for 60% of the total power generation, and fuel supply largely determines the power supply.”Some measures to increase coal production and ensure supply introduced in the fourth quarter of 2021 are temporary emergency measures, and some emergency capacity may be withdrawn after the end of the heating season,” Wang yixuan said.In addition, there are certain uncertainties in the import of coal, such as Indonesia’s ban on the export of coal some time ago, to China’s coal supply and price volatility.”On the other hand, there is uncertainty in the precipitation situation of major basins, which brings uncertainty in hydropower supply capacity.By the end of 2021, of China’s 390 million kW installed hydropower capacity, conventional hydropower is 350 million kW, and the uncertainty of precipitation has a great impact on hydropower output.”At present, it is difficult to accurately predict the precipitation in the flood season in 2022, and there is still uncertainty about the specific situation of hydropower output.”Although facing certain uncertainties, Wang Yixuan said that the power industry will earnestly implement the decisions and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and The State Council, implement the requirements of relevant departments, spare no effort to ensure people’s livelihood, power generation and heat supply, and take strong and effective measures to improve the security and stability of energy and power.”I have full confidence in ensuring power supply in 2022 and will be able to complete the task successfully.”