Firecrackers sound old year, oil fly meal dance New Year
Domestic firecrackers sound old year, international oil and grease rejoicing in the New Year.Meizu rose 7%, meizu meal 9% and Ma Zong 2.4% during the holiday season.After the first day of domestic opening, oil meal to digest the cost end, soybean meal rose by the daily limit, beans two, rapeseed hit the daily limit, beans two closed up 5.28%, rapeseed closed up 8.39%;The oil surge eased, with soybean oil up 3.61 percent, palm oil up 3.08 percent and vegetable oil up 1.30 percent.01 detonated during the festival the bullish information using soy markets around the world market in January could cheer rainfall, drought hit again, Brazil paranal south mato grosso state and soybean yield, Argentina soybean was falling to 37%, the soil moisture 36% in shortage to the extreme shortage of state, the soybean production prospects relapse whole,Abiove, AgRural, AgReasource, StoneX, Cogo, Datagro and others again cut their forecasts for Brazilian soybean production by varying degrees to 125-135 million tons, while burSE cut its forecast for Argentine soybean production by another 2 million tons to 42 million tons.Separately, analysts expect the USDA to cut its estimate for Argentine soybean production by 4.3 percent (or 2 million tons) to 44.5 million tons and Brazil by 3.8 percent (5.28 million tons) to 133.7 million tons in its February WASDE report.For global soybeans, assuming no other adjustments in the USDA February report, supply or ending stocks would continue to fall by more than 7 million tons.The repeated downgrades of Soybean yield in South America further compressed the planting area or yield fault tolerance space in 2022, and the planting area outlook in late February became more important.The deteriorating prospects of Soybean production in South America and farmers’ reluctance to sell make global buyers turn part of their demand to the United States. The depressed situation of American soybean export has improved, and the net increase of the current annual sales has exceeded one million for two consecutive weeks. The problem of space squeeze of South American soybean export to The United States will be alleviated to a certain extent.With the supply and demand two-way positive and come is the management of the fund running admission, THE CFTC Us beans net positions in late January and early February for two consecutive weeks increased positions, close to the first half of 2021 high;The U.S. bean broke resistance in the 1400-1450 range to record its highest level since June 2021.The data released by SPPOMA showed that the production of horse palm decreased by 12.4% in January, and the data from shipping agencies showed that the export of horse palm decreased by 25.5%-27% in January. It is estimated that the stock of horse palm may recover to around 1.7 million tons from 1.58 million tons in December last year.In general, there was no bright spot in the ma Palm data during the festival, despite the sharp rise in crude oil, ma Pan palm oil as a whole remained high in a narrow range, waiting for the MPOB1 monthly report.Indonesia has forced some palm oil to be sold domestically, capping at 20% of gross palm oil exports. However, the bullish impact of Indonesia’s export policy has been absorbed by the pre-holiday market and domestic market surge. There is no directional information in the oil market at present.In addition, limited by the oil meal ratio callback brought by the protein surge, the international oil price during the festival is slightly flat relative to the protein trend.In general, the South American weather continues to disturb the oil and oil market, the global soybean inventory at the end of the pre-decline, geopolitics and countries import and export policies increased, the fund bullish mood, short-term internal and external disk linkage, the United States beans and protein continue the weather market.Oil tight supply support is still in, but with good news digestion and oil meal ratio suppression, short-term or continuous meal strong oil weak pattern, waiting for MPOB1 monthly report to give the opportunity to admission.Disclaimer: Futures are risky, investment should be cautious.The above content is not used as investment basis, only for reference.The content of this article is based on publicly available information, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed.The author may supplement, revise or update the information from time to time, but there is no guarantee that such updates will be published in a timely manner.The contents and opinions contained in this article are based on the analysis of historical data and there is no guarantee that the contents and opinions contained in this article will not change in the future.This article is for reference only and is not intended as investment advice to anyone under any circumstances.