In the next five years, whoever buys these three houses will be the man to take over
The real estate industry began to be ready to move again. As the Central Economic Work Conference set the general policy of stabilizing the economy, the central government required relevant units to introduce supporting measures to promote the risk reduction of the real estate industry, and local policies gradually relaxed, and market funds have begun to operate.In the capital market last week, real estate companies represented by Poly Group rose by the daily limit.Recently, there have been a lot of friends asking me whether my house can be bought in private letters. In order to solve everyone’s inner doubts, this program is full of dry goods, not only telling you whether the house can be bought now, but also telling you what kind of house you should not buy, no matter how low the price is.To understand the trend of the real estate industry, in fact, the first to understand the judgment of insiders.As the first group of people who rely on real estate dividends to get rich, Pan Shiyi and his wife began to gradually withdraw from real estate very early. In 2019, in a public event, Pan Shiyi said that today’s real estate market is becoming more and more abnormal, which has violated basic common sense.As early as 2014, Pan Shiyi and his wife began to sell and sell in China, and successively disposed of SOHO Jing ‘an Shanghai Plaza, Helen Square, Lin Kong SOHO and other buildings.Although many people in China do not like Pan Shiyi, but there is no denying that Pan and his wife in the real estate industry in time to close, also helped them in recent years to avoid a lot of violent thunder and risk, at least, their life is much better than Xu Jiayin, Sun Hongbin and others.Wang Jianlin, founder of Wanda Group, was once the richest man in China. At the 2018 Annual meeting of Wanda Group, Wang Jianlin publicly announced that wanda Commercial would completely withdraw from the real estate, and not a single square meter would remain.In recent years, Mr. Wang has been noticeably less heard from, but wanda has not been exposed to any greater debt risk.Take a look at the current domestic real estate industry one elder brother Vanke group.Vanke group has made two overall judgments on the real estate industry. The first time in 2014, Vanke announced that the “golden era” of real estate had ended and the industry had entered the “silver era”.The second time is this year, Vanke Chairman Yu Liang announced at vanke 2022 annual meeting that real estate has entered the “black iron era”.It is easy to understand that the “golden age” is the easiest period for the development of the industry, while the “silver Age” refers to the competition in the real estate industry from incremental competition to inventory competition. What is the “black Iron age”? Frankly speaking, it is the era when the real estate developers make no money and earn hard money.From the golden age to the silver age to the black iron age, it has generally become harder to make money in real estate.But behind the scenes, trends are at work.Ren Zeping, an economist known as “the father of China’s real estate industry”, once said that the real estate industry looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. Let’s analyze it one by one from three aspects.From a financial perspective, there should be opportunities in the real estate sector in the short term.In 2022, the National Economic Work Conference put “stable growth” in a crucial position. In this year’s government work report, the GDP growth target is 5.5%, and the real estate sector accounts for a large part of the national economy. On the other hand, if we do not boost the real estate sector, it will be difficult to achieve the target of domestic economic growth.Moreover, since this year, the relevant departments of the state have emphasized in many meetings that appropriate loose monetary policy should be adopted to maintain the vitality of the economy. Generally speaking, monetary easing, policy support and the overall risk of the real estate industry in the short term are not great.In the medium term, the judgment of the real estate industry may be consistent with Vanke Group, the competition in the real estate industry has entered the era of stock competition.At present, the overall urbanization rate of our country has broken through the threshold of 60%, and the urbanization process has reached the stage of focusing on quality rather than quantity.The international standard for identifying primary developed countries is 70% urbanization rate. At present, the gap between China and other developed countries is not too big. In the next few years, the number of people entering cities will gradually decrease, and the power of taking over urban real estate will also face obvious shortage.Finally, demographic factors, our country’s fertility rate is 8.5 per thousand in 2020, created a record low, and population growth in 2021, young people face high marriage, housing costs and the cost of child care costs, birth will reduce gradually, don’t want to birth, dare not born has become more and more the norm of young families.It is not easy to stimulate the desire to give birth. Currently, a number of policies and measures have been adopted by the central and local governments to promote the increase of fertility rate. However, it will take time to verify the effect of these policies.So, the current real estate, in the short term the risk is not big, just need to take time to get on the car, but the longer term, there are more uncertain factors, holding the investment money mentality to purchase is no longer desirable, structured market will more and more obvious, individual cities and areas, residential whole excess pressure is bigger, the vision and judgment of the person that buy a house is very important.Since the real estate industry appear differentiation is inevitable, so ordinary people how to choose a suitable house to avoid stepping on pit, next, I talk to you the problem of how to choose the house, there are three kinds of house at first glance, there is no problem, even you will feel very good, but once you buy such a house, is very difficult to change hands, and to appreciate slowly,These a few kinds of house must not buy, price again preferential also cannot buy.The first type of house is “old broken big”, the old broken residential community usually refers to no elevator, old apartment type, poor property of this kind of house.Some people think that it is better to be “old and big” than to be “old and small”, but it is not.Old broken small comfort level is not high, but relatively speaking, because the price is not high, or more easily changed hands, the old broken small purchase choice is most just need friends, old and broken is different, not only the total price is not low, buyers in the same budget, tend to have more choices, but at the same time the comfort level is very low, the property buyers more and the pursuit of quality of life now,It becomes less and less popular in the market, often long after it has been listed.If you go to buy a house with a budget of 4 million yuan, which one will you choose between a 140-square-meter laodiao Da flat and a 100-square-meter Yuanda New flat?I think young people, who are the majority of home buyers now, are generally more willing to accept the increased cost of transportation than to compromise the quality of living.The second type of house is the poor quality of high-rise housing.As I said just now, in the future, there will be great pressure from the overall surplus of housing. As the number of newborn population decreases, there will be more and more houses in the future. Every family will have more than one house.In this case, we will pay more and more attention to the quality of the housing, and the poor quality of the house as time goes by, will be more and more out of the market.So why are low-quality high-rise buildings especially at risk?Just think ah, high-rise residential generally refers to the residence of more than 20 floors, this kind of residential area is more difficult to coordinate in terms of housing repair, property maintenance and other issues, more importantly, because of the number of residents, this kind of house in a few decades after the demolition are not moved.Finally this kind of house, we must cause attention, these two years of the housing market, the shortcomings of this kind of house has not been shown, but after a few years, the market of this kind of house will be smaller and smaller, this is a large area of two rooms.What kind of person buys a two-bedroom apartment, obviously a young person with no children or a budget.This means that the house will soon be can’t keep up with family needs, often need to replace, but ah, from the perspective of the family of city new homes now, developers have more and more emphasis on intensive model, to improve the utilization of the area, in recent years, we saw about 100 square meters, 90 square meters of the three room door room more and more, therefore,After 90 square meters, 100 square meters of two rooms door is difficult to change hands.The same is 90 square meters, you this is two rooms, the family is three rooms, more than you a room, the total price may be a little higher, but the buyer may buy this house can achieve one step in place, after a few years do not need to replace, in contrast, the same area of the three rooms of the price is much higher.Finally, to sum up, with the increase of urban residents’ income, the pursuit of quality of housing will be more and more, in the future, the quality of housing will be abandoned by buyers, liquidity, so if you consider to buy a house, now must not buy old big, poor quality of high-rise residential and large areas of two rooms, the house changed hands in the future will be very difficult,It is easy to become a warrior who starts to lose money when buying. If you want to maintain or even increase the value of the house, it is best to choose the quality housing near the industrial planning area, which will definitely allow you to outperform the market.In the next few years, there is an overall risk of excess in the domestic urban housing market. If you are a homebuyer who just needs or just needs improvement, you can still buy a house now, but you must make a good selection. In the future, the real estate market will become more divided, and your choice of house determines the ability to maintain and increase the value of assets.Ok, this is the end of today’s content, think I said a reasonable friend, like and follow, have a different opinion of friends, you can also leave a comment in the comment section, we will see you next time.